Here’s the Iranian dilemma in a nutshell: Israel has the capability to strike Iran’s nuclear program but not fully eliminate it. The United States has the power to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear program but lacks the political will. And above all this is an even bigger dilemma: it would be ideal to topple the regime rather than just dismantle its nuclear ambitions, but regimes don’t collapse on demand. Sometimes they crumble spontaneously—as Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime did last winter—and sometimes they unexpectedly endure in the face of external threats. History provides plenty of examples.
Senior Israeli officials believe the Iranian regime might be just a few Israeli airstrikes away from complete collapse. They argue its authority would crumble if the “Zionist enemy” could freely operate in Iranian skies after destroying Iran’s extensive air defense systems, built meticulously over years.
Top-level discussions now focus not on if, but when and how. Attacking nuclear facilities could halt Iran’s program for many months or perhaps a few years, necessitating an additional threat from President Donald Trump that, for example, any attempt at reconstruction would trigger an American military response. Should Israel simultaneously target Iran’s oil exports, clearly signaling that an Iranian attack on Israeli population centers would devastate the export industry that keeps the ayatollahs in power?
Almost nothing leaks from the frequent high-level discussions held in Washington and Jerusalem involving senior officials from both governments. It’s unclear whether the increased American military presence in the region is aimed at forcing Iran into accelerated negotiations for a new deal, or whether it is preparing support for an Israeli strike.
Does Trump have enough political capital and willingness for such an operation, especially as his approval ratings dip back into negative territory following a brief honeymoon period? With Wall Street closing one of its worst quarters in years, does he have the room to maneuver into a conflict that could shake the markets?
It’s premature to call the game after the first quarter, but so far Trump has kept his distance from Iran. He repeatedly threatens retaliation against Tehran for Houthi missile launches, even though 11 ballistic missiles have targeted Israel since fighting resumed in Gaza without triggering alarms in Iran.
A new idea recently surfaced in Washington: why not lease Israel the strategic bombers it needs, similar to the Lend-Lease program to Britain at the start of World War II? Instead of a nuclear agreement, perhaps a lease deal would leave a lasting impression across the Middle East. Whether Israeli pilots are eager to train on yet another aircraft—that’s another matter.
The above is an excerpt from my Shabbat column in Yedioth Ahronoth.
